Australia
Key Economic Indicators
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): Australia’s CPI for October recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous months. This deceleration indicates progress in managing inflation. Significant contributions came from rising food and housing costs, while declines in electricity and fuel prices offset some of the pressure.
- Economic Slowdown: The Australian economy is experiencing significant slowdowns, primarily due to weak household consumption and expected declines in business and housing investment. According to a report from Ai Group, the current economic conditions indicate that Australia is in the longest sustained period of economic weakness since the early 1990s recession. GDP growth has fallen to 1.1% annually in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting a progressive stall in economic activity.
- Inflationary Pressures: Inflation remains a critical issue, with persistent pressures reducing real incomes and household spending. The report indicates that inflation is driven by domestic factors and is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously anticipated. The retail sector, excluding groceries, has been in recession, indicating reduced consumer spending.
Economic Insights
- Real Wage Overhang: A report by Westpac highlighted a “real wage overhang,” where nominal wages appear stable, but real wages—adjusted for inflation—are under pressure. This trend negatively impacts consumer spending and overall economic sentiment.
- Consumer Sentiment: The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 5.3% in November, showing a recovery in consumer confidence. However, the underlying details indicate some fragility in this improvement.
- Economic Outlook: On November 18, 2024, the ANZ Economic Outlook indicated that financial conditions have eased, and the economy is responding. The report forecasts a potential reduction in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.5% by mid-2025 as the economy operates with significant excess capacity and inflation remains around the 2% target midpoint.
New Zealand
Key Economic Developments
- ANZ Economic Outlook: On November 18, 2024, the ANZ forecasted easing financial conditions, with expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.5% by mid-2025. This reflects the economy operating with significant excess capacity and inflation near its 2% target midpoint. The RBNZ is likely to adopt a more gradual easing approach as economic activity shows signs of recovery.
- Economic Activity and Unemployment: According to a November 21 RNZ article, New Zealand’s economy is softening. The Infometrics quarterly economic monitor showed flat activity in the three months to September compared to a year ago, with a 2.8% drop in spending for the quarter. Rising unemployment underscores cautious consumer behavior amid ongoing challenges.
- Westpac Economic Insight: On November 22, Westpac highlighted the strong demand for dairy products, which has led to improved prices, benefiting farmers. However, the RBNZ is expected to cut the OCR by 50 basis points in its next meeting, reflecting concerns about sluggish economic growth and inflation dynamics.