Market Overview
Key Economic Releases This Week:
- Mar 12: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
- Mar 13: Core CPI, CPI m/m & y/y (USD); BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate, Press Conference (CAD)
- Mar 14: Core PPI, PPI, Unemployment Claims (USD)
- Mar 15: GDP m/m (GBP); Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (USD)
With rate cuts on hold, market attention shifts to the health of the U.S. economy amid trade war challenges. The question remains: will Trump’s policies strengthen the economy, or will growing dissatisfaction among voters prove justified?
Stock Market Performance
As of March 2025, the U.S. stock market is experiencing a slowdown. The S&P 500 is down 2% YTD, while the Nasdaq has dropped 6% YTD. After two strong years, some consolidation is expected.
- Dow Jones: 42,802 (+0.6% YTD)
- S&P 500: 5,770 (-1.9% YTD)
- Nasdaq: 18,196 (-5.8% YTD)
Defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples are leading, while tech and consumer discretionary stocks struggle due to high valuations. Growth is slowing, with the Atlanta Fed projecting Q1 GDP at -2.4%. While a recession isn’t imminent, continued economic weakening could prompt the Fed to cut rates. Futures markets currently anticipate three quarter-point Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Recent Stock Movements
Gainers: Nvidia, UnitedHealth, and IBM have shown recent gains, with Nvidia rising by 3.29%.
Losers: Intel, Boeing, American Express, Walt Disney, and JPMorgan Chase have faced declines, with Intel dropping by 5.54%.
With the top 1% of taxpayers holding a significant portion of the country’s adjusted gross income, a stock market downturn could have severe economic consequences. The health of the U.S. economy now hinges on stock market performance, making index movements a critical indicator of future growth or contraction.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have remained stagnant despite last week’s NFP release. Price action is moving sideways, waiting for stronger dollar movement to determine direction. The MACD and RSI are not showing clear signals yet, reinforcing the current indecision.
However, prices are respecting the overall bullish structure, staying above the EMA200, which suggests continued support. The market is in a wait-and-see phase, but the longer-term trend leans bullish, making gold a potential buy opportunity once a breakout occurs.
SILVER
Silver is showing increased potential for upside, currently trading near 32.5177. The RSI is overbought, indicating that the market could continue consolidating before another move. Meanwhile, the MACD is in exaggerated sell territory, though price action suggests bullish strength.
The EMA200 is providing support, confirming silver’s bullish trend. Until a definitive breakout occurs, traders should remain cautious but prepare for buying opportunities.
DXY (Dollar Index)
The U.S. dollar is showing a strong downtrend, failing to sustain any meaningful recovery. The MACD is increasing bullish volume, but this is not being reflected in price action, while the RSI consistently calls overbought levels on minor upticks.
This indicates that momentum remains bearish, favoring continued dollar weakness. The outlook remains bearish, with further selling opportunities likely in the coming sessions.
GBP/USD
The British pound recently hit a new high but has since stalled, consolidating as the market waits for key economic releases. Monday has been quiet, but upcoming news could drive major moves.
The MACD and RSI are both neutral, providing no clear direction yet. Consolidation is expected to continue, but bullish momentum remains intact as long as the pound holds key support levels.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar remains consolidated below its previous swing high. While the recent break above resistance showed increased bullish momentum, the current pullback is not unexpected.
The EMA200 and previous support zone are currently holding. The MACD is crossing up, indicating potential for further buying. However, the RSI remains neutral, suggesting that price may move sideways until stronger confirmation appears.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi dollar is maintaining bullish movement, supported by the EMA200. Resistance at the zone high is limiting further gains for now, but the MACD is preparing to cross up, signaling a potential continuation of the uptrend.
The RSI remains low but recently approached overbought territory. While near-term direction remains unclear, bullish sentiment persists as long as price stays within the current trend.
EUR/USD
The euro remains in consolidation despite reaching a new high last week. Continued dollar weakness suggests that bullish movement could continue.
The MACD is showing increased selling, but price action remains strong, suggesting underlying buying pressure. The RSI remains stable, reinforcing a bullish outlook as long as the dollar remains weak.
USD/JPY
The yen is experiencing increased bearish movement, though price remains within consolidation. Despite making a new low, the lack of follow-through suggests possible trend exhaustion.
The MACD is signaling a buy, despite slow price action, while the RSI is maintaining high levels, suggesting that sellers may not be in full control. More confirmations are needed before a clearer trend emerges.
USD/CHF
The Swiss franc continues to strengthen, showing a stronger downtrend than other currency pairs. The MACD is increasing, but the RSI is overbought, indicating that selling momentum remains dominant.
With the franc offering a more stable alternative to the U.S. dollar, further downside for USD/CHF is likely. The outlook remains bearish, favoring short positions.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar is struggling to establish a clear trend, with price action testing the EMA200. The MACD is increasing bullish volume, but the RSI remains neutral, suggesting potential for further consolidation.
While the chances for a bullish reversal are increasing, confirmation is needed before taking new positions. The market is likely to consolidate further before committing to a trend.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (1/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)