Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have risen as expected, making a clear breakout from the consolidation zone. The MACD and overall price action signaled the continuation of the bullish trend, driving prices to new all-time highs. The RSI did not indicate a strong momentum shift, but price action stayed in line with the bullish structure.
Global trade tensions and heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly U.S. military action against the Houthis in Yemen, continue to support gold’s safe-haven demand. Given these conditions, gold is likely to continue rising in the coming days.
SILVER
Silver has followed gold’s lead, seeing increased buying pressure. The MACD is showing steady bullish volume, and the RSI indicates strengthening bullish momentum. The market has performed better than expected and aligns with our broader outlook for continued bullish movement.
We anticipate further gains in the coming days as silver continues to benefit from the overall bullish sentiment in gold.
DXY (Dollar Index)
The U.S. dollar is showing signs of extended consolidation, with prices stagnating after gold’s surge to significant levels. The uncertainty in the U.S. economy and shifting market sentiment indicate that institutional investors may seek alternatives to hedge against dollar risk.
The MACD shows increased bearish volume, while the RSI is normalizing its downward momentum. Further selling is expected in the coming days, but we remain cautious until a confirmed shift occurs.
GBP/USD
The Pound has gained as expected, following yesterday’s bounce. The larger consolidation zone remains intact, likely due to anticipation surrounding the April 2 tariff deadline. The MACD and RSI indicate growing bullish momentum, suggesting a potential breakout to the upside.
Until the breakout occurs, we will focus on range-bound opportunities within the consolidation zone. We remain cautious, waiting for clearer price action.
AUD/USD
The Aussie Dollar remains stagnant, showing no significant market developments. Consolidation is extending as expected, and we will wait for clearer price action before making any directional calls.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi continues to consolidate with minimal movement, as anticipated. The MACD shows potential bearish volume growth, while the RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting the bottom boundary could push prices back up.
We remain on standby and await a clear breakout to establish a clearer market bias.
EUR/USD
The Euro has followed expectations, testing the EMA200 before showing selling potential. However, the RSI is stabilizing, and the MACD hints at a possible increase in buying volume. The market’s muted movement reflects uncertainty, and while a shift back to buying is possible, we remain bearish as long as price action respects the downward trend.
USD/JPY
The Yen has continued to strengthen, breaking above 150.883. The Tokyo inflation report has exceeded expectations, boosting **expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike as early as May. This could provide additional support for the Yen.
The MACD and RSI reflect increased bullish momentum, suggesting that the uptrend will continue.
USD/CHF
The Swiss franc remains in consolidation, and our previous analysis remains unchanged. We will hold off on any calls until clearer market direction emerges.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar remains in consolidation, and we maintain our prior outlook. We will wait for further market movement to make new assessments. Tariff developments will be closely monitored, as they may provide clarity on CAD’s direction.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (3/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Conclusion
Gold continues to surge, benefiting from geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and global risk sentiment. Silver has followed gold’s lead and remains bullish, but further gains will depend on price action and key resistance levels.
The U.S. dollar faces downward pressure as markets consider alternatives and hedge against risks. The Pound, Aussie, and Kiwi are experiencing mixed movements, while the Euro shows downside risks.
We expect continued buying in gold and silver with further caution in currency pairs. Traders should keep an eye on geopolitical events and economic data to inform trading decisions.