Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices surged, reaching $3,000/oz as anticipated. The rise followed a significant contraction in consumer confidence (57.9 vs 63.1 expected) and negative PPI and CPI data, which raised concerns about a slowing U.S. economy. The drop in CPI to 0.2% and core PPI’s contraction to -0.1% indicated weaker consumer demand, which negatively impacted the dollar and fueled a sharp rise in gold prices.
The rise was further propelled by Trump’s tariffs and continued geopolitical tensions, including military strikes and trade wars. These factors compounded economic fears, pushing gold prices to historic levels.
The MACD and RSI both support the bullish outlook, although the MACD is reaching exaggerated levels, suggesting a possible short-term retracement. However, the overall expectation remains bullish, and more buying opportunities are likely in the near future.
SILVER
Silver prices are following gold’s lead, showing increased bullish movement. The MACD is moving upward, and the RSI is reflecting increased momentum, confirming the bullish trend. However, consolidation could still take place, potentially leading to a brief retracement before further upside.
As long as gold continues its ascent, silver is expected to maintain its bullish trajectory. Further buying opportunities should arise in the coming days, particularly if gold’s strength persists.
DXY (Dollar Index)
The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, with a slight rise toward the EMA200, despite gold’s surge. The overall market sentiment remains uncertain as tariffs and inflation concerns surrounding Trump’s policies fuel speculation about interest rate cuts.
The MACD and RSI show neutral to bearish signals, indicating that the dollar remains under pressure. We expect continued weakness in the dollar, with further clarification likely to come from Chairman Powell’s remarks on potential rate cuts this Wednesday. Until then, we will monitor the dollar’s movements, with a bearish bias for the near term.
GBP/USD
The British pound remains in consolidation. While the market is showing some bullish structures, we are waiting for a clear breakout before making any directional calls.
Our outlook remains neutral, with bullish sentiment still intact, but we will refrain from making significant moves until a more definitive price direction emerges.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is experiencing bullish momentum, partly due to the continued geopolitical tensions and trade wars. Despite this, the dollar’s uncertainty presents risks, as the Aussie is sensitive to market volatility.
The MACD shows increasing buying, and the RSI indicates further bullish momentum, but we remain cautious about a possible reversal. Until a more definitive break occurs, we expect continued bullish movement, but traders should monitor for signs of a potential downturn if the U.S. dollar gains strength.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi is showing stronger bullish movement compared to the Aussie dollar, largely due to increased trade between New Zealand and China.
The MACD and RSI indicate increased momentum and buying strength. The price action has broken through the upper zone, confirming a strong bullish outlook. We expect further gains for the Kiwi dollar in the coming days as the market remains favorable.
EUR/USD
The Euro is experiencing increased selling pressure, reflecting a modest strengthening of the U.S. dollar. We see potential for further downside movement, but we are waiting for clearer market signals before committing to any significant action.
The MACD and RSI suggest a bearish trend, but we are cautious and will wait for a clear breakout before confirming the next move.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen is under pressure after briefly testing the EMA200, but it has failed to break above the previous lower high, reinforcing our bearish outlook.
The MACD is showing increasing buying pressure, while the RSI remains oversold, suggesting that a downtrend is still in play. Despite the potential for further gains, we expect further downside in USD/JPY, with the yen’s weakness remaining a key market driver.
USD/CHF
The Swiss franc is showing signs of increased buying, testing the EMA200, but the overall market structure still favors selling. The RSI and MACD indicate no clear buying signals, so we are awaiting further price action.
While momentum remains bearish, there is a possibility for the franc to rise before resuming its downward trajectory.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar continues to face selling pressure, but Trump’s tariff policies could fuel further CAD weakness.
We continue to monitor for a clear break before making any decisive moves. As of now, the Canadian dollar is stuck in a large consolidation range, and we expect further developments on the geopolitical front before making any calls on this market.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Conclusion
Gold and silver continue to show strong bullish momentum, while the U.S. dollar faces continued weakness due to political and economic factors.
GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD remain consolidated, awaiting clearer price direction, while the Euro and USD/JPY show signs of further downside.
Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, U.S. economic data, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts to make informed trading decisions in the coming days.
