Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold holds steady as prices test the EMA200 and continue to consolidate. Despite the RSI approaching oversold territory, price action does not yet confirm a reversal. The MACD remains neutral, lacking any clear directional momentum. We remain cautiously bearish unless a decisive break below key support levels confirms a trend continuation. Until then, gold appears to be range-bound.
SILVER
Silver continues to trade in a tight consolidation zone. No directional bias is evident. Both MACD and RSI remain muted, reinforcing the current sideways structure. We will stay on the sidelines until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar remains in a sideways range as the Federal Reserve adopts a wait-and-see approach regarding rate cuts. Although RSI and MACD both hint at building bearish pressure, the broader price structure continues to respect bullish levels.
Geopolitically, the Dollar faces added uncertainty after former President Trump warned that nations refusing to negotiate in good faith would face last month’s proposed tariffs. While this revives protectionist concerns, it also signals diplomatic openness—creating potential for increased short-term volatility in the Dollar.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has posted strong gains against the Dollar, with both the MACD and RSI confirming robust bullish volume. That said, the pair is approaching a critical resistance zone. A confirmed break above recent highs would validate bullish continuation. If resistance holds, we may see a pullback. We advise caution near this key level.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD remains in consolidation, but the MACD and RSI both reflect growing bullish potential. Price is still respecting its underlying bullish structure. A scheduled rate cut announcement on Tuesday could trigger a breakout. Until then, we advise traders to stay cautious and watch for volatility.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD shows increasing potential for a bullish breakout. MACD and RSI both reflect growing upward momentum, and price is beginning to hint at trend reversal. Still, we await a confirmed breakout from the current range before adopting a bullish stance.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has pushed above the EMA200, but this alone is not enough to turn sentiment bullish. A defined upper boundary still holds, capping gains. MACD and RSI both show emerging selling pressure, suggesting the potential for a reversal unless a breakout confirms continuation. We remain cautious at current levels.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is trading sideways despite general Dollar weakness, largely reflecting broader uncertainty in Asian equities. Price remains above key support, and the overall structure remains bullish. However, both MACD and RSI are flat, showing no clear signals. We await a breakout from the current squeeze to guide direction.
USD/CHF
The Franc remains in tight consolidation, with price bound between two defined levels. MACD and RSI both confirm this indecision. We maintain a neutral stance until a clear breakout occurs.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD continues to consolidate with no directional conviction. MACD and RSI are flat, and price is trapped within a tight range. Like other major pairs, we remain neutral and will await a decisive move before adopting a bias.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (3/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
The market is currently caught in a prolonged holding pattern, as ongoing consolidation continues to dominate gold, silver, and several major currency pairs. A combination of geopolitical risks—including rising tensions in key global regions—and growing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next move is fueling a cautious sentiment among traders. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain mixed across the board, offering little in the way of clear direction. In this environment, traders are advised to remain disciplined and patient, waiting for decisive breakout signals before entering directional trades. Visit: https://gfs-markets.com/