MARKET ANALYSIS
GOLD
GOLD prices are currently seeing increased bullish movement as anticipated after bouncing off the EMA200 yesterday. Prices have finally broken out of the consolidation zone and are nearing historic highs. The question now is, will this move have enough momentum and strength to break the previous record?
“I think $3,000 is the next logical target, likely reached sometime over the next several months,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir.
Data showed that the U.S. consumer price index increased less than expected last month, though the improvement may be temporary amid aggressive tariffs on imports. Lower inflation leaves more room for the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and non-yielding gold typically thrives in a low-interest rate environment.
Recent developments include a trade war initiated by Trump, which increased tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods—although some measures were later dialled back. With the PPI now in the spotlight, the direction of the US dollar in the coming days will largely determine market dynamics.
We can see the MACD showing increased bullish momentum while the RSI remains normalized, supporting further buying opportunities.
SILVER
SILVER prices are exhibiting increased bullish movement. The MACD is currently bullish and is about to signal an oversold condition after a minor drop, suggesting a continuation of bullish momentum. However, this may also indicate a phase of consolidation. Given that GOLD prices are being closely evaluated, SILVER may remain stagnant unless GOLD breaks above its current structure—at which point significant gains in SILVER could follow.
DXY
The Dollar is currently consolidating after a droop from yesterday, which has placed GOLD prices at a more attractive level. With ongoing geopolitical tensions easing (notably in Ukraine), the Euro and other risk-sensitive assets like the Aussie dollar and Kiwi are gaining appeal. The RSI for the Dollar is overbought, reflecting heightened selling pressure, while the MACD has just crossed upward, suggesting that further selling may occur in the coming days. Overall, price action supports a bearish outlook for the Dollar.
GBPUSD
The Pound has experienced an increase following emerging prospects for peace in Ukraine. The MACD indicates potential for a short cross before a continuation high, and the RSI shows rising bullish momentum. With prices testing the upper boundary, there is a strong likelihood for continued bullish movement.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar is showing robust upward movement amid uncertainty surrounding the Dollar. If peace negotiations with Ukraine progress, stability may return, further supporting the Aussie. The MACD is consolidating sideways while the RSI indicates potential for continued bullish trends, though some caution is warranted should the Dollar strengthen unexpectedly.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi is in a consolidation phase but shows more appreciation relative to the Aussie dollar. Prices remain above the EMA200, and the MACD is steady while the RSI is trending lower, indicating an increase in buying momentum. This suggests that NZDUSD may continue its bullish trend in the coming days.
EURUSD
The Euro is currently demonstrating increased bullish movement. The MACD is on the verge of signaling a low crossover, while the RSI is showing oversold levels, suggesting potential for a price rise. This bullish sentiment is driven by optimism regarding peace in Ukraine, although we await clearer directional movement before making definitive calls.
USDJPY
The Yen is showing expected weakness, having tested the EMA200 and then retracting from recent highs. The MACD indicates growing buying activity, yet the RSI remains consolidated, implying that although the bearish trend persists, there is potential for a reversal if confirmed by further price action. Traders should monitor developments closely for clarity on the BOJ’s direction.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc is displaying increased selling momentum, failing to reach the EMA200. The MACD is showing further selling while the RSI is rising rapidly, reflecting weakening buying pressure. However, with the RSI approaching oversold levels, consolidation may persist before further declines. We remain cautious, looking for more definitive price moves before entering new positions.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar is experiencing typical swings and is maintaining a broad range of consolidation. The MACD and RSI are not yet showing a clear directional bias, so we maintain a neutral view and wait for a decisive break before considering potential entries. Trade tensions and tariff pressures from Trump remain key factors affecting the pair.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD: WEAK (5/5)
- GBP: STRONG (5/5)
- CAD: WEAK (5/5)
- EUR: WEAK (1/5)
- JPY: STRONG (5/5)
- CHF: WEAK (3/5)
- USD: STRONG (4/5)
- NZD: WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD: STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER: STRONG (4/5)