Market Overview
Implemented Tariffs
- Baseline Tariff: 10% on all imports to the U.S., effective April 5, 2025, excluding Canada, Mexico, and Belarus.
- Automotive Tariffs: 25% on non-USMCA-compliant vehicles and parts, effective April 3, 2025.
- Aluminum & Steel Tariffs: Section 232 tariffs increased to 25% on aluminum (including beer cans and other derivatives), effective March 12, 2025.
Reciprocal Tariffs (Effective April 9, 2025)
- China: 34% tariff
- European Union: 20% tariff
- Angola: 32% tariff
- Cambodia: 49% tariff
- Other Countries: Varying from 11% to 50%, based on bilateral trade imbalances
Planned Tariffs by Other Countries
- China: Export controls on rare earth metals, effective immediately.
- European Union: Planned $8B in duties on U.S. goods, including tech and agriculture.
- Brazil & India: Threatened 100% tariffs on U.S. goods unless exemptions are granted.
These developments are driving significant volatility across global markets. The scale and speed of these tariff changes are disruptive and carry the potential to escalate into a full-blown trade war. While the U.S. appears focused on strengthening domestic economic resilience, this strategy is straining international relations and putting pressure on foreign economies. It also accelerates the likelihood that countries will seek alternative trade routes and alliances.
Fed Chair Powell warned the economic impact of the new tariffs may be larger than initially expected, potentially leading to slower growth and higher inflation. The market is pricing in a 34% chance of a -25 bps rate cut following the May 6–7 FOMC meeting. More impactful data is likely to emerge in the months ahead as the full effects of the tariffs unfold.
From our perspective, the sudden wave of tariffs could be deeply detrimental to businesses. With little time to prepare, companies are scrambling to adjust, and this lack of preparation will drive price increases, disrupt supply chains, and force companies to cut back on operations. Consumers, sensing instability and inflation, may pull back on spending, causing a self-reinforcing slowdown.
Patience is key as we closely monitor how markets react to these developments in the coming days and weeks.
Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices are experiencing extreme volatility. The MACD and RSI are showing signals for a sell-off, but a sudden bullish spike during the Asian session raised concerns. This could be due to profit-taking behavior or margin call coverage.
While the overall bias leans toward further consolidation, the large movements indicate increased risk. There’s potential for a rapid trade setup, but given the unpredictability, traders should be cautious. We recommend staying away from GOLD unless you have the capital to manage high-risk trades.
SILVER
SILVER is following the same volatile pattern as GOLD. The MACD and RSI confirm increased bearish momentum, signaling further downside in the coming days. Patience is essential, as we await more stable signals to make informed trading decisions.
DXY
The Dollar Index (DXY) surged after the tariff announcements. The MACD showed increased volume, and the RSI is normalizing. Despite this uptick, the broader price action remains bearish, with the EMA200 acting as a potential resistance. While there is some strength in the dollar, it may be short-lived.
GBPUSD
The Pound is facing increased selling pressure. Both the MACD and RSI reflect growing bearish momentum. This shift follows last week’s uptrend, signaling a potential reversal. If the U.S. dollar maintains strength, we expect further downside for GBPUSD.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar is continuing to weaken. The MACD and RSI indicate a clear bearish trend with increasing volume. Although the market remains fragile, short pullbacks may provide selling opportunities.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi showed early signs of a bullish trend but reversed quickly. The MACD and RSI confirm strong downside momentum. As market sentiment remains risk-off, we anticipate further bearish movement in the coming days.
EURUSD
The Euro is facing selling pressure, especially after the EU was targeted by U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Without a resolution, we expect more bearish movement. The MACD and RSI indicate increased selling momentum. Trading EUR/USD tips now suggest a sell-side focus.
USDJPY
The Yen is acting as a safe haven, with price attempting to break through resistance zones. The MACD and RSI show growing selling pressure. If momentum continues, we expect further downside for USDJPY, presenting a solid opportunity for traders seeking forex pair analysis in uncertain times.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc is mirroring the Yen as a hedge against the dollar. Both the MACD and RSI confirm bearish signals. As risk sentiment turns defensive, we expect more downside in this pair.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains weak but is testing the EMA200 and the lower boundary of its consolidation range. The MACD and RSI show increasing bullish momentum. If prices break above the EMA200, we could see a return to bullish behavior, offering rapid trade setups later in the week.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, reinforcing directional bias:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – WEAK (3/5)
Use these ratings to filter your trades. If you’re evaluating execution performance or comparing platforms, consider reviewing an MT4 vs MT5 comparison to find which aligns best with your strategy.
Final Thoughts
Markets are highly reactive following the rollout of U.S. tariffs. As highlighted in this forex pair analysis, volatility is high, and sentiment is shifting rapidly. Whether you’re seeking trading EUR/USD tips, rapid trade setups, or considering an MT4 vs MT5 platform comparison, precision and patience are key right now.
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